Future event prediction (FEP) is a long-standing and crucial task in the world, as understanding the evolution of events enables early risk identification, informed decision-making, and strategic planning. Existing work typically treats event prediction as classification tasks and confines the outcomes of future events to a fixed scope, such as yes/no questions, candidate set, and taxonomy, which is difficult to include all possible outcomes of future events. In this paper, we introduce OpenEP (an Open-Ended Future Event Prediction task), which generates flexible and diverse predictions aligned with real-world scenarios. This is mainly reflected in two aspects: firstly, the predictive questions are diverse, covering different stages of event development and perspectives; secondly, the outcomes are flexible, without constraints on scope or format. To facilitate the study of this task, we construct OpenEPBench, an open-ended future event prediction dataset. For question construction, we pose questions from seven perspectives, including location, time, event development, event outcome, event impact, event response, and other, to facilitate an in-depth analysis and understanding of the comprehensive evolution of events. For outcome construction, we collect free-form text containing the outcomes as ground truth to provide semantically complete and detail-enriched outcomes. Furthermore, we propose StkFEP, a stakeholder-enhanced future event prediction framework, that incorporates event characteristics for open-ended settings. Our method extracts stakeholders involved in events to extend questions to gather diverse information. We also collect historically events that are relevant and similar to the question to reveal potential evolutionary patterns. Experiment results indicate that accurately predicting future events in open-ended settings is challenging for existing LLMs.

This research paper presents an approach to enhancing the predictive capability of architects in the design and assurance of systems, focusing on systems operating in dynamic and unpredictable environments. By adopting a systems approach, we aim to improve architects' predictive capabilities in designing dependable systems (for example, ML-based systems). An aerospace case study is used to illustrate the approach. Multiple factors (challenges) influencing aircraft detection are identified, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in a complex operational setting. Our approach primarily aimed to enhance the architect's predictive capability.

In this paper, we contribute a multi-faceted study into Pavlovian signalling -- a process by which learned, temporally extended predictions made by one agent inform decision-making by another agent. Signalling is intimately connected to time and timing. In service of generating and receiving signals, humans and other animals are known to represent time, determine time since past events, predict the time until a future stimulus, and both recognize and generate patterns that unfold in time. We investigate how different temporal processes impact coordination and signalling between learning agents by introducing a partially observable decision-making domain we call the Frost Hollow. In this domain, a prediction learning agent and a reinforcement learning agent are coupled into a two-part decision-making system that works to acquire sparse reward while avoiding time-conditional hazards. We evaluate two domain variations: machine agents interacting in a seven-state linear walk, and human-machine interaction in a virtual-reality environment. Our results showcase the speed of learning for Pavlovian signalling, the impact that different temporal representations do (and do not) have on agent-agent coordination, and how temporal aliasing impacts agent-agent and human-agent interactions differently. As a main contribution, we establish Pavlovian signalling as a natural bridge between fixed signalling paradigms and fully adaptive communication learning between two agents. We further show how to computationally build this adaptive signalling process out of a fixed signalling process, characterized by fast continual prediction learning and minimal constraints on the nature of the agent receiving signals. Our results therefore suggest an actionable, constructivist path towards communication learning between reinforcement learning agents.

For years, avian influenza has influenced economies and human health around the world. The emergence and spread of avian influenza virus have been uncertain and sudden. The virus is likely to spread through several pathways such as poultry transportation and wild bird migration. The complicated and global spread of avian influenza calls for surveillance tools for timely and reliable prediction of disease events. These tools can increase situational awareness and lead to faster reaction to events. Here, we aimed to design and evaluate a decision support framework that aids decision makers by answering their questions regarding the future risk of events at various geographical scales. Risk patterns were driven from pre-built components and combined in a knowledge base. Subsequently, questions were answered by direct queries on the knowledge base or through a built-in algorithm. The evaluation of the system in detecting events resulted in average sensitivity and specificity of 69.70% and 85.50%, respectively. The presented framework here can support health care authorities by providing them with an opportunity for early control of emergency situations.